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Good Sunday evening! I've been in Huntsville over the past few days learning about some new equipment we have a KAIT. I also heard from several people in the business about best practices for severe weather coverage. It was a very beneficial weather conference. Now, it's time to focus on the chance of storms through lunchtime on Tuesday: Here are my thoughts as of 8:00 PM on Sunday, January 31st: I'm not overly concerned about the threat of severe weather in Region 8, but we will have to watch our eastern areas on Tuesday morning.  Prior to that time period, we may see a few showers tonight and Monday. We will be cooler on Monday before the warm front moves north. The greatest chance for severe weather will be Tuesday morning through lunch. The greatest threat is from Crowley's Ridge to West Tennessee. Let's dig into some maps! Right now, we have a cold front moving through that has sparked off a few showers: That front lifts back to the north tomorrow night to give...

Good morning, everyone! The Region 8 Storm TEAM is keeping a close eye on a storm that will impact Region 8 on Monday night. Here are my thoughts on Thursday, 1/28/16, at 7:45 AM: Severe weather is possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Strong winds, hail, and even tornadoes are possible. While the timing might help us with less instability, people are more vulnerable when they are asleep. Confidence in storms is high. Confidence in "severe" storms is medium right now, but growing. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is also highlighting our area for severe weather. Have a way to get warnings while you sleep: Storm TRACK 8 App Text STORM to 52488 Make sure your NOAA weather radio works Stay tuned for changes in the forecast. Now, let's dig into the stuff that only the weather geeks are interested in seeing. Others can get back to work! LOL  The GFS and Euro model, both show unstable air in the overnight hours of Monday night and Tuesday morning. These maps show "C...

The above image shows what fell last night and where. As I look at that map, there is no way to have forecast the storm accurately. I would have never gone on-air with a forecast map that has an "ice storm sandwich" between "heavy snow bread". Regardless, I'm my toughest critic and I'm looking for ways to learn from last night. At my house, I had at least 0.25" of freezing rain, if not more. All rain gauges were frozen. I left and drove west to find snow. As I came down Crowley's Ridge by Mrs. Addies on Hwy 412, I started noticing white rooftops. By the time I got to Light, they had a dusting of snow. I kept driving west and by the time I arrived in Walnut Ridge, they had 2-3" of snow. That's only 20 miles! I then turned north and found the 5-6" in Randolph County. A direct path from my house to the 6" of snow is 31 miles. Folks, that's a tough forecast. I've taken the slamming on social media from those that saw no snow. ...

We are adjusting the accumulation map because of the warm layer I talked about this morning. The storm is shifting a little, too. Here are our thoughts at 10:00 AM: Sleet accumulates much slower than snow. BBs versus Cotton balls... but, same amount of moisture.  Timing is still on track to start this evening and lasting through Friday morning. Roads will be bad in the morning regardless of the type of precipitation. As you see in the map below, the greatest chance for higher accumulation is east of Jonesboro. Jonesboro appears to get some freezing rain with about 1.00" of sleet and 1.00" of snow on top. Give or take a little. This is like predicting what a bull will do when it comes into the arena. We know it is coming in... but what it does when it gets here is questionable! Giddy up! Here's the latest map. Notice that this includes SLEET and SNOW: Ryan

We have a tough forecast over the next 36 hours! Buckle up! We should see all types of precipitation from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow. With high winds, we may even see brief BLIZZARD conditions. Here are my thoughts at 7:45 am: Rain, sleet, and freezing rain moves in after the sun goes down this evening. Some places may be above freezing at the start. Temperatures drop through the night. Sleet and Snow accumulates MUCH differently. Snow adds up faster than sleet. Tomorrow morning, the roads will be bad. Some areas may see over 0.25" of freezing rain before switching to snow. In those areas, there may be some power issues. With winds at 30-40 mph at times, there may be some power issues. If we get snow and 30-40 mph winds at the same time, we may have brief blizzard conditions Friday morning. Here's an accumulation map right now. Keep in mind, if get more sleet than snow, these numbers will be lower in spots: The reason that I'm concerned about sleet making the t...

I hate making big changes in the forecast, but the evidence of a change is pretty evident this evening. We shifted EVERYTHING west and increased totals. Here are my thoughts, for what it is worth: Freezing rain and sleet Thursday morning. Not as much as this morning. Rain and sleet Thursday evening. Changing to snow by midnight Thursday night/ Friday morning. Snow on Friday morning. Lightning is possible. Big impacts on the roads. I mentioned this already, but this is a VERY TOUGH forecast. Buckle up and hold on. I think this storm will have a few surprises. I'm hoping the data shifts east... That's me wish-casting. Ryan

Here's a quick update on my thoughts as of 5:00 PM on Wednesday: We are watching 2 time periods. Some freezing rain or sleet should develop by morning in parts of Region 8 This first time period could make a few slick spots by Thursday morning, but not as bad as this morning. Second time period starts tomorrow evening. Rain comes in tomorrow evening. Rain changes to snow tomorrow night. Forecast snow totals will be TOUGH. Snowfall amounts will vary greatly and there will be a sharp cutoff. We are forecasting lower amounts than some other weather forecast sources. At this time, I think our forecast is on track. If it changes, we will bring you those updates, but here are my thoughts right now: We will get a lot more data tonight and will adjust the forecast, if needed, by 10:00. Stay tuned! Ryan

We are less than 48 hours from being impacted by another winter storm. There are still some questions with this storm, but here are my thoughts at 10:30 AM on Wednesday: Low pressure brings precipitation into the state tomorrow. The precipitation may start as sleet, but should switch to rain. Mixed precipitation is expected tomorrow night. If you have Thursday evening plans, please pay close attention to the weather. The BIG QUESTION is where the heavy band of snow sets up Thursday night and Friday morning. Some data suggests the heaviest band will be in Western TN. Some data suggests extreme eastern parts of Arkansas and the MO Bootheel. At this time, I think the heaviest band will be right along the Mississippi River. Some parts of Region 8 will get almost nothing. Let's dig into some maps. The Euro and NAM both have the heaviest band of snow in western TN. Do not pay much attention to the totals. I'm not fully buying into the algorithm this map uses. But, you can see where t...

I have no official log of the first time I used the PANICOMETER, but I think it turns 10 years old this year!  Here's the earliest blog post I can find with the coveted PANICOMETER:  November 2006 We have upgraded the Panicometer a few times and occasionally adjust to fit a particular storm. For example, we cater it differently to an ice storm than a snow storm by adding the need for batteries and flashlights. Regardless, it's always been a fun way to show people how concerned we are about a storm. If I don't show it, people starts asking for it. It even caused a controversy in recent years! There's a bread man in Paragould that snapped on Facebook because I had the Panicometer at "Buy Milk and Bread" and it made him work harder to keep the shelves full. I still don't understand why he was mad that he was selling more bread, but hopefully he doesn't hate me anymore. He did delete his status, so maybe we can be friends one day. :) Over the past 2 years,...

Four different types of precipitation may fall across Region 8 tonight and tomorrow morning. Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and plain rain. Here are my thoughts at 7:30 am: Determining the impacts on schools will be tough. I'd hate to be a superintendent in the morning because this is one of those lose-lose situations. Either decision will be criticized by parents.  Precipitation will fall through the overnight. There should NOT be many power issues. Only isolated issues. Roads could be slick in the morning, especially bridges and overpasses. Precipitation TYPE will be the hardest part of the forecast. Let's review precipitation types. Everyone knows what "plain" rain is... and everyone knows snow. People often get confused with sleet and freezing rain. Sleet falls as little pieces of ice. Freezing rain falls as liquid and freezes on contact. I always say, sleet bounces... freezing rain glazes. Region 8 will likely see both tonight. Here's the latest data of all 4 mo...

I don't have a ton of time right now, but wanted to give you a quick update about Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Here are my thoughts as of 3:15 PM on Monday: Wintry precipitation moves in after 10:00 PM Tuesday night. Any accumulation will be LIGHT. School closings for Wednesday are possible, but not definite. It will probably a lose-lose situation for some superintendents. All types of precipitation are possible. Snow & Sleet possible for areas near Piggott, Pocahontas, Hardy, West Plains, Doniphan, Kennett, and Poplar Bluff. Freezing Rain and Sleet for areas near Batesville, Jonesboro, Paragould, Blytheville, Newport, and Harrisburg. Mostly plain rain for areas near Searcy, Wynne, and West Memphis. How this impacts roads is still questionable, but bridges may get slick by Wednesday morning.  That's all I have right now. We will take one storm at a time. Another chance of wintry weather comes on Thursday night. Stay tuned! Ryan

I'm waking up to NO snow and VERY cold air. Some of you woke up to a dusting! We had just enough moisture to swing through to have some flurries and light snow. Because it is SO cold, it was sticking easily! We have more snow to talk about for the week ahead. Here are my thoughts at 7:45 am: The dusting this morning was not much, but it got people wanting more snow! We have a chance of rain/snow mix on Tuesday night. We have a chance of rain on Thursday. And then.... a chance of rain/snow mix Thursday night. For both events, the freezing line will go right through Region 8. Some of you may get snow, while others get nothing. Schools could be impacted, especially on Friday. So, let's dig into some maps. If we take a really wide shot of the upper-level disturbances, we can see what gave us snow showers last night, where the disturbance is for Tuesday night, and even where the energy is for Thursday: As you can see, the Thursday storm has a lot of ground to cover before it gets he...

I'm growing more concerned that we will get COLD before the PRECIP moves out. Translation: Maybe more snow in some parts of Region 8. It's like we have come full circle on this storm system. Here are some bullet points for the rest of the day (Saturday) as of 1:45 PM: It appears that many parts of Region 8 will see snowflakes. I'd still be shocked to see a lot of accumulation, BUT a few spots may see a quick inch of snow. I'm hoping that will be isolated. The changeover from rain to snow should start in places like Batesville, Hardy, Heber Springs, Melbourne, and surrounding spots around 5:00-6:00 PM. The changeover moves west to east and places like Corning, Walnut Ridge, Jonesboro, Paragould, Harrisburg, and surrounding areas between 6:00-8:00 PM. This will be a fast burst of snow, but some things are limiting accumulation: We should be barely above freezing. The heaviest snow will only last an hour or so. With that said, it will be dark. Snow accumulates easier at ni...

The snow is going to be really close on Saturday. In fact, some parts of our viewing are could see some snow. Here are my thoughts at 10:00 PM on Friday night: Only rain in the morning for Region 8. Some places picking up as much as 1.00" of RAIN. As cold air moves in, some parts of the area could switch to SNOW in the afternoon. In Region 8, that includes: Baxter, Fulton, Stone, Izard, Howell, Ripley, Butler, and Oregon counties. Other counties in Region 8 my switch to light snow, too... But, it may not be enough to "stick". Jonesboro "area" will likely see NO accumulation, but I would not be shocked to see some flakes of snow falling by the late afternoon and evening. Roads in all of Region 8 should be fine, but we will watch closely, especially in NW areas. Now, let's dig into some data. The rain is likely to be here in the morning. Snow will be falling in SW Missouri: By lunch, the snow gets closer and some snow could be falling in NW Region 8: By the e...

There's a reason why we have (and have had) the snow chances at only 20-30% in the 7 day forecast. There's also a reason why I said it was not a big storm. With that said, the chance of snow has dropped for now. We could still see some flakes of snow this weekend and next week, but it just does not look like it will be enough to cancel school. Could that change? Yep... But, as promised... I'm keeping you updated. For those of you that love snow, there is still SOME data suggesting snow on Saturday night. Do your snow dance and maybe something will happen! It's only Tuesday... this forecast can change again. It is Arkansas, after all. In the long run, I hope we do not get snow. My winter outlook did not call for much snow. Therefore, the longer we can put it off... the better. Stay tuned! Ryan

There's some chatter going on about some snow coming to Region 8. I first posted about this possibility on December 31, 2015 and I'm actually shocked that it still looks like "something" might happen. While this does not look like a huge storm, it is one that we need to watch. Here are my thoughts as of Monday morning, 1/4/16: This DOES NOT look like a big winter storm. Sorry winter lovers. BUT, it may be enough to cause some issues. The focal point is NEXT Monday night into Tuesday morning, 1/12/16. (EDIT: Some data now has this coming in for the weekend. Stay tuned) Models are still flip-flopping. It's way too early to discuss amounts. Let's get through the rain showers on Thursday first. So, here's the deal. I need you guys to stay with us over the next week as we watch this little storm system. The forecast is likely to change a little, but models are showing a little bit of moisture while the cold air is in place. Images from Pivotal WX: At this time,...