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Showing posts from April, 2018

Will This Be The COLDEST April on Record?

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April of 1907 was an odd April for Jonesboro. We had 6 days with frost, with the latest on the 18th. On 10 of the days, we never even hit 60° for the high temperature. It was kind of wet and gloomy and areas north of us were still experiencing snow. As you can see from the map below, the entire state had below average temperatures: Sound familiar? So far, April of 2018 has been even colder! That's right, we are currently experiencing the coldest April since 1907. Therefore, we are on track to have the coldest April on record in Region 8! Take a look at the same map, for this month, so far: I pulled the latest data this morning for Jonesboro and we have an average monthly temperature of 51.8°. That's 6.9° BELOW average: Here are the TOP 10 coldest Aprils in Jonesboro: I know some of you are wanting to make a correlation to the summer forecast, but let me caution you to NOT DO THAT. I'm planning on digging into the summer outlook soon. Let's get to the end of April before...

April Snow? CRAZY Rare. How Rare?

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There has been a lot of chatter about the snow chances LATE tonight into Saturday morning. If you recall, we have been talking about this possibility for a wintry mix for almost a week. This is extremely rare for Region 8. In fact, it's been 25 years since snow officially accumulated in Jonesboro in the month of April. Even on that day, it was just a "trace". That's why it's hard for me to be too worried about any problems tomorrow morning. BUT, here are my bullet points on this Friday afternoon: I think many parts of Region 8 will see sleet and snow falling EARLY in the morning. With temperatures in the low 60s right now, it will be VERY difficult for the snowflakes to stick. If anything does stick, it will be on the grass, lawn furniture, grills, and maybe the fresh leaves of the Bradford Pear trees. Any snow or sleet that does stick will melt by noon. Roads should be fine. First, let's flashback 25 years to 1993. This is the last time that we had an officia...

Wintry Mix In April? Maybe.

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Yes, there is a chance that some parts of Region 8 will see a wintry mix on Friday night. Don't panic though, we are not too worried about accumulation. Here are my thoughts as of Thursday morning (4/5): Spotty storms on Friday morning. Widespread rain Friday afternoon. Heaviest rain near I40. BRIEF change to sleet or snow, especially in Southern Missouri counties. Accumulation is doubtful, but possible in southern Missouri counties. Overall, the forecast has been on-point for the past several days and has not wavered much. Of course, when it is concerning wintry precipitation, the track of the storm and 1-3° means everything! The low looks to be tracking right along the southern border of Arkansas Friday PM. That will keep the heaviest rain near I40, but allow some colder air to switch the precipitation to a wintry mix. If you are into agriculture, you are likely just worried about the precipitation totals. Let's chat about all of that!  At 7PM on Friday, most of Region 8 will...

Severe Storms Today: Timing, Threats, and Concerns

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Good morning, everyone. I'll admit that I'm a little more concerned about the storms than when I joined you on Region 8 News last night. The atmosphere really gets unstable this afternoon and I have a growing concern that we may have enough ingredients to support tornadoes. Here are a few thoughts: The line of storms may be a line of individual supercells instead of a solid line. This would be more conducive for tornadoes. Timing has not changed. Storms impact western counties by 4PM. Storms move from west to east, impacting the center of Region 8 between 4-7 PM. Straight line winds are still the main threat, but hail is possible.  As mentioned, I have a growing concern about tornadoes. These storms should be out of Region 8 by 8PM. Let's dive into some data. If you step outside this morning, you can feel a difference. The CAPE (Storm Energy) is going to be rising rapidly today. This is what it looks like this morning: By 2PM, look how unstable we get across Region 8! RAPID...