Few

Meteorological winter ends tonight. While the "official" final numbers have not been completed, I'm pleased with how the Region 8 Winter Weather Outlook turned out. You can read the outlook, which was written on 11/2/15  here . The outlook called for 1-3 winter events and 1 could be a "good one". I'd say that prediction was decent. The "good one" was the one that caused a lot of sleet and freezing rain and 6" of snow in Pocahontas. The outlook called for 1-2 severe weather events. That happened in December. Link here . The outlook called for 1-2" of above average precipitation. That did NOT happen. As you can see in the graph below, we had above normal precipitation in December, but February was rather dry. Click image to enlarge: The outlook called for HIGHS to be 0-2° above average and they were 3.2° above average . The outlook called for LOWS to be 3-5° above average and they were 3.8° above average . Here's a graph of the temp...

There is a LOW threat of severe weather on Tuesday morning. Low means low. Meaning, severe weather is NOT likely, but possible. Here are my quick thoughts on the threat: It's low. Minimal impact on Region 8, but still possible. Even though it is Low, make sure you have a way to get watches and warning immediately. Text STORM to 52488. Download the Storm TRACK 8 app and have the notifications turned on.  Storms will be in the morning hours. Threat ends around lunchtime. Hail and gusty winds are the main threat, but we never rule out tornadoes. Possible radar at 6AM: Possible radar at 9AM:

Here are my final thoughts before the 10:00 News. We are getting reports of a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain at 9:30 PM, but the changeover for most areas will happen later tonight. Here are my thoughts at 9:30 PM PM: Not everyone will see accumulation. If it does stick to the roads, it will melt fast tomorrow morning. The best chance for snowfall is still in the Ozarks.  There is still a CHANCE that Jonesboro sees snow that does not stick.  Most of this will melt fast on Wednesday. Rachel will be in Jonesboro on GMR8. I'll be out in the Central Ford StormTRACKER to find the heaviest snow. nearby. Justin will be in the studio. I'm not feeling 100%, so if I get any worse... I may be reporting from home.  Have a great night and we will see you on Region 8 News at 10:00 Ryan

In typical Region 8 style, we are going to be right on the rain/snow line. Some areas are going to see NONE, while others see 2-4". Across a single county, there will likely be wide gradient of snow amounts. Here are my thoughts at 4:30 PM on Tuesday 2/23/16: We are nudging the accumulation amounts eastward to include Jonesboro. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted from the NWS. Notice that the map says "POSSIBLE" accumulations. We are not God. We make educated decisions on where we think the snow will fall. Thanks in advance for understanding that limitation. :) Roads should have minimal impact. If they get covered, they will clear up quickly tomorrow. The greatest threat for accumulation is still in the Ozarks. WE WILL NEED YOUR REPORTS in the morning. Some will be seeing snow, while others will be seeing rain.  Here's the map: Thanks! More updates tonight on Region 8 News. Ryan

I've had several people asking me about possible snow accumulation with the storm coming in Tuesday night and Wednesday. Here are my thoughts on the storm as of 5:00 PM on Monday 2/22/16: The bigger threat will be wind and heavy rain. The heaviest snow should be west of Region 8. Some places will see snow on Wednesday, but it will not stick easily. This forecast can change. Here are our thoughts right now on accumulation. Click image to enlarge: Stay tuned for updates and look at earlier blog posts ! Ryan

We have a strong storm that will impact Region 8 late Tuesday into Wednesday. Here are the bullet points at 7:45 AM on Monday: Strong low pressure will move south of Region 8 Tuesday night. Sustained winds on Tuesday night will be at 25-35 mph. Wind gusts will go over 40 mph. Heavy rain with rainfall totals of 1.50-2.00" is possible. Isolated higher amounts. Some places will switch to snow. The best chance for snow accumulations IN REGION 8 include areas in the Ozarks: Baxter, Izard, Stone, Fulton, Sharp, Howell, Oregon, Ripley, and Independence counties.  Other counties may get snow, too. We are still watching to see if it will be cold enough for accumulation. Stay tuned. Let's dig into some maps. First, lets' talk about the wind. When you have a strong low pressure, the difference between it and the nearby high pressure can be great. The difference between the two is called the pressure gradient. When you see lines of equal pressure close together (black lines/isobars), ...

We are still watching Valentines Day closely for the chance of a wintry mix. There has not been much change in the forecast, but it does appear to be speeding up a little. Here are my thoughts as of 3:30 PM on Friday, February 12th: This still does not appear to be a big winter storm, but minor travel impacts are possible. The precipitation looks to come in a little faster than previously thought. Scattered sleet comes in on Sunday morning. Sleet will be off and on through the day on Sunday. Some areas switching to freezing rain. Any accumulation of sleet will be less than 1" Any accumulation of freezing rain should be less than 0.25". Watch each newscast for the latest update on new data and analysis.  Let's look at some maps to see what radar might look like. First, the sleet arriving Sunday morning: By the lunchtime, we still have some sleet and freezing rain: By the 10:00 News, many areas may be barely above freezing with just some showers: We are watching it closely!...

We are still a few days away, but there is a chance of some sleet late on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. There are still some questions to be answered, but we may see a brief taste of winter Sunday night. Here are my thoughts as of 8:45 AM on Wednesday, February 10th: This does NOT look to be a big winter storm. Sleet and Freezing Rain looks to be the main precipitation type. Arrives late on Sunday. Ends before sunrise on Monday. Too early to nail down precipitation types for each area. Too early to speculate on accumulations. Highs in the 40s on Monday. 50s and 60s next week. Here's what some of the data is showing. Sunday afternoon, cold air is on place at the surface, but some warm air aloft will melt the snowflakes as they fall. Near the surface, they should refreeze. If not, they may freeze on contact. That's the difference between sleet and freezing rain. This forecast sounding for midnight on Sunday Night/Monday morning shows what the temperature may do as you go up ...