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I've been off work for a few days. My dad had knee surgery, so I went to Nashville to help him out. Thanks for asking about him. Rehab is rough, but he is a tough guy. He will be good. Now, I'm digging into some data again. We continue to be in an active pattern. Region 8 has already had 8 tornadoes this year and I'm afraid we will see more this Spring. Let's break down the week ahead starting with today. Here's my bullet points on today: We already have some storms at 9:30 AM. So far, just lightning and heavy rain. More storms will develop after 11:00. These storms will have a large hail risk. The main time for severe storms today is 1:00-5:00, but could last a little longer in our Eastern areas. Storms should be east of us completely by 6:00 or 7:00. While the main threat is large hail and strong winds, tornadoes can not be ruled out. Here's what radar "could" look like at 1:00 PM: Next round of storms comes Wednesday into Thursday. Bullet points: Mo...

This picture has me concerned. It's a picture from NW Tennessee this morning where some precipitation has already started. The big question with this storm system was: WILL THE SNOW STICK? Well, this picture shows about 1/2" of snow, but it's easily sticking to the roads! They were also in the 70s, two days ago. Here are some bullet points: Sleet and snow is already falling in areas. Mostly rain through the day, but some places may dabble in wintry mix all day. Rain changes to snow for most areas later in the afternoon. Snow this evening. I'll be in the Central Ford StormTRACKER providing updates this evening. Snow may stick easier and faster than previously thought. (Based on pic above) Generally, 1-2" for areas that change to snow. Melts tomorrow. Churches may be impacted. Let's look at some data. This is what StormCAST (RPM) is showing at 6:00 PM. Many areas will be rain, but spotty areas switching to snow: By 9:00 PM, many locations will be all snow: Lates...

First off, this is a post from 2017 and not 2014 ;). There is a CHANCE that some parts of Region 8 will see some sleet and snow Saturday. Here's the quick bullet points: Most of this storm will be plain rain, especially Jonesboro southward. Best chance of snow will be in Missouri , BUT latest data is showing some sleet and snow in Arkansas, too. It will be hard to get the sleet and snow to stick, but it might. Best chance is the northern half of Region 8 which includes Missouri and the counties bordering Missouri. There will be a "sweet spot" somewhere in Region 8 that gets a good coverage of sleet and snow. I'm not placing bets on where that will be yet.  Models are in agreement... for now. This first image is the European model and the second image in the GFS or American model: Remember, sleet will not "add up" to as much as snow, but I've noticed that it sticks easier. At this point, I'm thinking sleet for the areas that get below 32. Stay tuned! ...