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Gordon is now a depression as it moves through Mississippi. It should be in Arkansas later tonight. Here are the bullet points this morning: There has not been much change in the forecast. There still appears to be the chance of a sharp precipitation gradient across the state. The best chance of rain from Gordon is Thursday and Friday. Front moves in to enhance rain on Saturday and Sunday. So, as I said, there has not been much change. Most data takes the center of Gordon SW and W of us and this would also be where the highest rainfall amounts should be located. The European model is showing a very sharp gradient. This is it's projected rainfall before the front moves in: This is the projected totals after the front, too: The GFS has flip-flopped on the position of the low pressure and really just paints a large 2-4" area of rainfall on everyone: Overall for the state, it would be good to not have 5-10" of rain in spots, but for Region 8... most are hoping for the Euro so...

Good Tuesday morning, everyone! Not much has changed with the track of Gordon. Gordon will likely become a hurricane shortly and make landfall near the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline tonight. We will be covering it extensively tonight on Region 8 News. Here are the bullet points this morning: Gordon makes landfall tonight. Gordon comes into Arkansas as a DEPRESSION tomorrow night into Thursday. Region 8 will see less of an impact than other parts of Arkansas and Missouri. Highest wind gusts will be in southern and western Arkansas. Highest rain totals are likely going to be near the center of the track (outside of Region 8) There will be a SHARP gradient of rainfall totals over the next few days. Let's dive into some maps and data. To be 100% transparent (and this may come back to bite me), I think most of Region 8 will be fine. Some of the most reliable data has the track staying southwest of Region 8. We will still get rain, but flooding rains and higher wind gusts should stay S...

I'm going to start giving daily updates on Gordon on this blog. I'll start out with some simple bullet points and then dig into some maps/data. I may do 2-3 updates per day, depending on any changes. First off, here are the latest bullet points: Gordon is a TROPICAL STORM now. Position seen above. Tropical Storm WARNINGS have been posted along parts of the FL, AL, MS, and LA coastline. Landfall is expected on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The path (once it comes inland) is VERY QUESTIONABLE. The leftovers of Gordon may impact Region 8 as early as Wednesday, but could be later if it stay SW of us. At this time, I do not expect a wind problem in Region 8. (15-20 mph Wednesday) At this time, flooding in Region 8 form Gordon does not look widespread. IF (big IF) this storm takes the current NHC forecast path, all of Region 8 would see LESS THAN 2" of rainfall. OK, let's dive into some data. I want to show you the best and worst case scenario. As a farmer, you want ...

There is a tropical disturbance that may form into a tropical storm over the next few days. It's that time of the year when we have to keep a close eye on the tropics, even for Region 8. Right now, it is near the Turks and Caicos islands, but is expected to move across Florida and possibly strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I don't expect it to become a hurricane, but it stands a decent chance of becoming a tropical storm. For us, we will have to watch how much rain it provides when it goes inland. One model keeps the deepest moisture along the gulf coast and DRENCHING many areas with SEVERAL inches of rain. Another model slings some of that moisture into Region 8, but overall... is not as wet for the overall system. Here's the latest look at 7 day forecast amounts from the Euro and GFS: If it impacts us, it would be mid to late next week. We will watch it closely. Ryan