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Update at 9:00 PM 4/29/2017: This could get serious! Bryant Creek and North Fork White River feed Lake Norfork. Bryant Creek just broke a record for it's highest level and White River near Tecumseh is well on it's way! See graphs from NOAA: Lake Norfork is now rising rapidly. It has risen a couple of feet in the past couple of hours: In addition to concerns on Lake Norfork and the White River, I'm worried about the Black River and Current River. We are waiting to see just how much rain falls in those basins, but a ton of water has already fallen north of that basin. I expect MAJOR FLOOD STAGE along the Black River in the coming days as the water drains. Region 8 weather watcher Jason Hampton lives up there and knows those rivers well. I'll continue to check in with him over the next few days.  Ryan

Outside of a few isolated showers, Region 8 stayed mostly dry last night. The model above (GFS) showed 2-4" of rain for Region 8... which that simply did not happen. We knew this was a possibility because some data suggested that we would stay capped, with the heaviest rain being north of Region 8. That's exactly what happened:  So, maybe this model (NAM) is going to handle this entire weekend forecast better. I sure hope so because it only gives us 1-2" of rainfall: Now, could we still see 3-4" of rain under areas that see stronger storms?... YEAH! Don't let your guard down. The higher resolution WRF shows that isolated streaks of 3-4" of rainfall will be possible, but it does not look widespread until you get into Missouri: Even if we do not have 5" of rain area-wide, we are still going to have river flooding because of all of the rainfall in Missouri. We will be watching river levels closely for you! To summarize: The rain increases late today. Most ...

For anyone that knows me, they know that I have pulled some pranks. My friends know that I will do anything to make them laugh or smile. The guy who posted this picture to Facebook last night was probably trying to do the same thing. I get it. But, posting fake tornado reports is not funny. It's dangerous. It creates false panic. And, it wastes time for those trying to warn people in the line of storms. The pic above was NOT from Region 8 yesterday. It is a picture from Marshall Brozek in Moore, OK in 2013. Let me explain more about the picture above: Its' a picture of a tornado that killed 25 people in Moore, Oklahoma on May 20th, 2013: NWS-Norman It's the picture of a tornado that killed kids, pregnant mothers, dads, sons, and daughters. Here are their names, ages, and links to their lives: Terri Long – 49 Megan Futrell – 29 Case Futrell – 4 months Shannon Quick – 40 Sydnee Vargyas – 7 months Karrina Vargyas – 4 Jeany Neely – 38 Antonia Candelaria – 9 Kyle Davis – 8 Janae...

I keep hoping that the models will start showing less rain over the next week, but they aren't. The 2 models that we use the most for guidance in the long range are showing some areas with 7-10" of rainfall before all of this is over. The placement of the heavy rain is still questionable, but with a very moist atmosphere for the weekend, we are bound to see some flooding... somewhere in Region 8. This is NOT GOOD considering a few rivers are ALREADY reporting minor flooding: At the very least, some farmland may be under water by Monday. Here's what two models are showing as of right now. Remember, this is including the rain Wednesday night and the weekend. Let's hope this changes: Stay tuned for changes... hopefully drier changes. Ryan

If you have outdoor work that needs to be done this week, you might want to tackle those chores before Wednesday. The pattern is becoming very active over the next week. In fact, the next 7 days could be the most active weather we will have this severe weather season. I don't say that to scare you, it's just rare to have 4 of the next 7 days flagged for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. First, here are some bullet points: Severe weather is possible on Wednesday. At this time, it appears the greatest threat will be in Central Arkansas, but we need to watch that carefully. All threats are possible: hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. We get a break for Thursday and most of Friday. Friday night, severe threat increases. Saturday, severe weather is possible. Storms come in waves. Sunday has the most dynamics. By that, I mean the winds at the surface and aloft are favorable for severe weather. Low passes north and the threat ends by Sunday night. River flooding will be a...

When forecasting, you look at things that you are confident about and things that are still questionable. I'm very confident that it will rain this weekend. I'm confident that many people will see an inch or so of rainfall. I'm confident that a few areas may even see 2.00" of rainfall. I could easily go on TV tonight and say "It's going to rain this weekend" and I'd likely be right. But, we all demand more in a forecast, so we try to nail down the timing and if there will be severe weather. For the weekend, models are NOT in agreement on timing or the track of the low. The TRACK of the low determines the temperatures and just how unstable we will get in Region 8. Model 1 (GFS) has the low tracking NORTH of Region 8 Saturday afternoon. This would leave us with the threat of severe weather on Saturday afternoon and evening. Model 2 (Euro) has the low moving farther south about 12 hours sooner. Click image to enlarge: As I mentioned, the TRACK of the low...

The severe weather threat is LOW tonight, but I can't rule out a severe thunderstorm warning or two. We should be mostly dry during the daytime hours, with only an isolated shower possible. The air does getting a little unstable this evening. This is a look at CAPE at 7PM. If you recall, CAPE is the fuel needed for storms, but several factors can still prevent thunderstorm development. For example, you can have a car full of gas, but if you have a dead battery... it's not going to start without some assistance: Radar at 7PM may have most of the precipitation in central and southern Arkansas, but notice the few storms in our NW counties in that unstable environment: I'm not overly concerned, but I will probably not go too far from the station on dinner break. By 10PM, a lot of the action moves east... As we go further into the evening hours, the CAPE goes down: Stay tuned for changes, but the severe weather threat appears to be LOW. Any warnings that are issued will likely b...

Holy cow! The rain ended and the wind started! Walnut Ridge had 5 mph winds at 7:30 PM and 52 mph at 8:05 PM and there were no thunderstorms! So, what happened? It was a "wake low". A wake low forms when the air sinks behind an area of rain. That air typically warms slightly and increases this low that forms. The pressure DROPS and the winds INCREASE. You can see this when you look at the 5 minute observations from Walnut Ridge. The top line is from 8:55 PM and the bottom line is 7:25. Notice the temperature also went up from 57° to 61°: I would write more, but the 10:00 News is coming on soon! Ryan