Posts

Showing posts from August, 2017

Harvey Is Here!

Image
We have a had one heck of a rain band come through Region 8 this morning. This band is well ahead of the main storm system and has dropped 4-6 of rain in some isolated spots. As of 8:00 am, here are some of the rain totals so far: Walnut Ridge 0.07" Paragould: 0.24" Jonesboro: 1.62" (with a big band of rain approaching) Bay: 2.33" Osceola: 2.73" Trumann: 2.81" Fisher: 3.36" McCrory: 5.85" We have some DEEP moisture that this rain band is working with and this could be the heaviest rain of the day. Let's hope so because it is already overachieving! Let me show you a map that represents how much water content we have in the air. It's called "Precipitable Water". Notice the dark reds and pinks. That is deep, tropical moisture at 7AM this morning: Notice that we get a little drier toward lunchtime in PARTS of Region 8, but you can clearly see the center of Harvey moving closer to us at this time. This is noon: By the evening, the de...

ARDOT Traffic Cameras. What About NE Arkansas?

Image
For months, KATV meteorologist Todd Yakoubian and I have poked fun at ARDOT for being the LAST state in the United States to provide highway traffic cameras to the public. Most of these jabs have been done on Twitter and were mainly done to joke around with our friends at AHTD. They finally launched the cameras yesterday on their iDriveArkansas app. The cameras that have been installed look GREAT! The streaming video looks GREAT. The user interface looks GREAT. But... WHAT ABOUT NE ARKANSAS??? If you look at their app, you will see a lot of cameras in central Arkansas: You will also notice several cameras in NW Arkansas: And there are a handful of cameras across other parts of the state, but what about NE Arkansas? Well... there's not much. In fact, the one camera in Region 8 launched as "temporarily unavailable" (UPDATE: This camera is now online): And the cameras in Crittenden County on the app are owned by the Tennessee Highway Department and are not as good of quality...

Harvey Is Coming Towards Region 8

Image
Much like snow storms, you have to watch every evolving element of a tropical storm system. We are at a crucial time of the year for our farming community. Some need some rain, some don't. Nobody needs the wind! So here are my bullet points right now: Wind on Thursday and Friday should blow at 15-20 mph. The best chance for 20 mph wind is Thursday night. This should be NOTHING like Ike from a few years ago.  Rainfall amounts are still questionable because it all depends on the TRACK. The east side of the track would be the wettest, so the eastward trend in the track is favorable. There will be a SHARP cutoff on rain totals. Some parts of a county will see less than an inch, while another part of the county may see 4-5". Whoever is near the center or east of center, could get 6"+ of rainfall. Tornadoes are possible near the center and east of center. These would be small, but fast developing tornadoes. Thursday night Jr. High games may be soggy and breezy.  The heaviest ra...

Solar Eclipse Is Tomorrow! Will The Weather Cooperate?

Image
We are now within 24 hours of the Solar Eclipse! We are close enough to have better accuracy on cloud cover and some of the high resolution computer models are showing some good news for Region 8. Here are my thoughts on those staying in Region 8 for the partial 95% Eclipse: The eclipse starts at 11:50 and peaks at 1:20. While we may have a few clouds, I feel confident that most of Region 8 will see the eclipse in it's 90-98% eclipse stage. Turn on the clouds (satellite) on your KAIT weather app to keep an eye on clouds. For those of us travelling to the TOTALITY zone, we really want the (roughly) 2 minutes -/+ of TOTAL 100% ECLIPSE. For that period, we need no cloud obstructions. Here are my thoughts on where to go: Most of us traveling are (or were) thinking about driving up 67 to SEMO. That was my initial plan, but I'm worried about some cirrus clouds. My next thought was to bite the bullet and drive FURTHER east to Hopkinsville, KY. I want to avoid driving TOO far, so I...

5 Day Cloud Forecast For The Solar Eclipse

Image
We are getting closer to the eclipse! While I'm still optimistic for seeing the eclipse very well in Region 8, the path of totality really needs that couple of minutes of totality for it's "cool factor". Let me explain... Here in Region 8, we will have a partial eclipse. While we may have a few clouds covering some parts of the "peak" at 1:20ish, we are likely going to see a good part of the partial eclipse as it starts at 11:50ish and ends shortly before 3:00. Even if we have a few clouds during the "peak" at 1:20, we are still going to see a great partial eclipse. The reason to drive to the totality or 100% zone is for the couple of minutes when the sun is 100% covered. If you have ONE cloud covering the eclipse in that 2 minutes, it really impacts the experience. So, here's the latest data regarding clouds around 1:20 on Monday: First, the GFS CloudCAST. In the second image, we have color coordinated the "best to worst" conditions....

7 Day Cloud Forecast For The Solar Eclipse

Image
We are still 7 days out, but all eyes are on the CLOUD FORECAST for next Monday! I've been pretty worried about the pattern lately, but I'm starting to get a little more optimistic. Typically, when a ridge of high pressure aloft moves close to us, we get hot and sunny. Heading into next week, we have an upper-level high pressure SW of us... nudging in our direction. That's the good news, but the bad news is if we are stuck on the perimeter of the ridge. That will leave us in a path of storm complexes or Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Here's the GFS model for next Monday: My hope is that the ridge builds in enough to keep the storms WELL to our north. The latest data shows that could happen: Even if this happens, some HIGH clouds may linger into the early afternoon. If this occurred, we may still see the eclipse through the high, then clouds (optimism). Here's a look at the Euro and GFS cloud cover at eclipse time. The upper-left shows total cloud cover. The upp...