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More rain is coming to Region 8, but the data is unsure of HOW MUCH. Here are my thoughts about the rain coming in: Clouds increase on Tuesday. Rain STARTS Tuesday evening in spots. Rain off and on for Wednesday. Severe threat is LOW Flood Watch is in effect. Rain moves out Thursday morning. If we had not had 8-10" of rainfall last week, I would not be sweating the chance of rain too much. However, the rivers are rising and the ground is saturated. Any rain is not needed, at this time. That is why we have a Flood Watch. At this times, it appears that the GFS model is the most consistent . It shows the heaviest rain along and south of I40. I think this is very close to what will happen: The Euro had the heaviest rain band setting up over the center of Region 8. It's pretty much the only model with this solution and shows the most rainfall for Region 8, with 2-3" in Jonesboro area: And finally, the RPM shows the lightest rain in Region 8, but a ton of rain south of us: I li...

Good Friday, everyone. I'm off work today, but I finally got a chance to sit down and look at some data this evening. Here are my thoughts right now regarding severe storms on Saturday: Warm front provides some storms from mid-morning to lunchtime. These could be severe, but not as concerning as the storms later in the day. Don't take them lightly though. The afternoon will be the time when the atmosphere charges itself for evening storms. IF we get any sunshine, that would make us more unstable. That's not good. Right now, we have most of Region 8 under a MEDIUM risk of severe weather. Greatest threat will be high wind from storms. The wind dynamics with this storm are very concerning. Tornadoes are possible, especially in storms ahead of the main line in the evening. I'm worried about the wet soil being very loose and trees uprooting easily. All threats should end by midnight, tomorrow night Here's what radar could look like at lunchtime. Don't take the storms...

Let me throw a few numbers at you: So far, it's the SECOND wettest February on record in Jonesboro with 10.70", as of 8:00 am on 2/23/18. We are only 0.72" away from having the WETTEST February on record. If that does not happen today, it will likely happen tomorrow. Yesterday was the wettest February 22nd on record with 2.61". I've had 7.4" of rainfall at my house in Paragould, just this week... and it is still raining. As you probably knew without reading this, we have had a VERY wet week. We are expecting severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. With such a wet ground, I'm afraid we are going to see uprooted trees near stronger storms. Stay weather aware tomorrow. Here are the Top 10 wettest February prior to this month: Ryan

As we have talked about for several days, a rainy pattern starts today. I'm going to ONLY talk about this first round of rainfall in this post. There are several maps floating around showing the 7 day rainfall totals. While those maps have impressive numbers, we need to take each round separately so that we don't start building arks! Here are my thoughts as of right now regarding the rain tonight and tomorrow, Round 1: Rain has already started in some parts of Region 8. It will likely rain ALL DAY on Wednesday. On average, 2-3" of rain is likely across all of Region 8 before Thursday. The precipitation RATES will not be that high, so "flash" flooding is not likely. Flooding is possible. I would be shocked to see anyone get more than 0.50" in a 1 hour period. This is a prolonged rain event. It will not all come at once. We get a little break on Thursday (Scattered Stuff) with Round 2 coming Friday. So, let's dig into the data. As I mentioned, while rainfa...

In weather verification, perception is sometimes not reality. By that, I mean that sometimes people expect something different than the reality. So, when reality does happen, they think the forecast was wrong. That's why I like to recap storms, show data to support what happened, and let you decide. Leading up to the storm, the NWS issued an Ice Storm Warning. We agreed with this call by the NWS. According to the NWS, the criteria for an Ice Storm Warning is: Ice Storm Warning Issued when significant or possibly damaging accumulations of freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle are expected. This usually equates to accumulations of 1/4 inch or more of ice. When people heard about the warning, some instantly thought it was the end of the world or the 2009 Ice Storm, whichever is worse (perception). When the panic started among a small part of the population, I posted this on Facebook and Twitter: The reality was, 0.25" or more of freezing rain was expected somewhere in the dark pu...

Freezing rain forecasts are the worst. There is very little wiggle room for error. 1-2 degrees is the difference between wet trees or frozen trees. The difference between 0.10" of liquid and 0.40" of liquid can be the difference between having power and not having power. There is not much wiggle room in the forecast. With that said, here are my thoughts right now: Winter Weather Advisory in effect for parts of Region 8. This is NOT a Winter Storm Warning. An advisory is the lesser of 2 evils. A WWA means that minor travel issues are possible. The area that could see power issues is small. First, because there is going to be a small area where the 32° and below air is in place and sufficient moisture. Second, power companies have done A LOT of work to prevent power issues, including trimming trees along thousands of miles of line. Most of us start as rain, and many will stay as a cold rain. Minimal impact to travel until 10:00 PM or so. Precipitation ends before sunrise. Any f...