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On this day in 1994, we already had an inch of snow on the ground and a Winter Storm Warning for more snow AND ICE! The above image is the old climate log from KAIT in 1994. You'll notice Terry Wood's signature at the bottom. In the days to come, we had freezing rain to stick to the power lines and 4-8" of snow on top of the ice! As Terry noted on the log, at least 8,000 were without power. I'd assume that number might have been higher because the technology was not in place to track those numbers as well as we can today. This storm caused travel problems across the entire state! Just rain today! Ryan

There are Astronomical Winter dates and Meteorological Winter dates. Astronomical Winter dates are based on the sun. This year, it runs from December 21st to March 20th. Meteorological Winter is based on the months. Therefore, December-February. Based on Meteorological Winter, we are halfway through the season! For someone that is not a fan of winter, I'm happy. Let's review the first half of Winter. December: Average temperature was 41°, which is 1.5° above average. Precipitation for the month was 4.46", which is 0.31" below average. We had a little sleet in spots, but nothing to cause travel problems. Some places had single digit lows on December 19th and 20th. Just for fun... Here's what I thought about December (in November) versus what the Old Farmer's Almanac said: January So Far: Average temperature has been 38.7°, which is 1.7° above average. Precipitation so far is at 1.50", which is 0.04" below average. We have had 1 winter weather event th...

Shortly after 3:30 this afternoon, I received messages, tweets, and Facebook mentions asking about a loud "boom". Some thought it was thunder, some thought it was a transformer, someone even made a connection to a train incident. I checked for lightning, an earthquake, a wreck, and power outages. I found nothing! I concluded that it MIGHT have been a sonic boom from a military aircraft. I still questioned that theory because the weather conditions were not great for flying. This evening I found the answer! It was a baby gender reveal! CONGRATS! IT'S A GIRL! Tannerite style! But, why was it so loud? Why was it heard in 4 counties?  SCIENCE! Today, we had a strong temperature inversion. This means that we had warmer air aloft. To be more precise, the air started getting warmer @ 900'. Below is a forecast sounding for 3:00 this afternoon in Jonesboro to show the temperature profile of the atmosphere. The red line is the temperature. Notice how the atmosphere is warmer at...

***Before we go any farther: IF we see ice, it will NOT be as bad as 2009*** As expected, models are starting to not agree on what will happen next weekend. Shallow cold air is tough to pinpoint. Just look at the temperature gradient going into next weekend from one model: One model has the colder air farther south, one has it farther north. Therefore, each model has a different idea of where we will see ice (pink). Here are both: If anyone gets a round of ice, it may only be NW Region 8. This is still 6 days out... Let's just hope ALL OF US stay with plain rain:

It's early, but the data is hinting at some type of wintry weather next Saturday, 1/14/2017. As we learned with this last storm, deviation to the north or south by 50 miles makes a huge difference. While it's too early for specifics, I will point out a few bullet points: We will not be lacking moisture. There will be a lot of precipitation, so we need to hope it is rain. Precip TYPE is questionable. Temperatures are questionable. There will be a SHARP temperature gradient across Region 8. Snow is unlikely because of warm air aloft. Therefore, if surface temperatures drop below freezing, the precipitation would be sleet or freezing rain. Some people may stay just rain. I hope all of us... Models are in better agreement than the last storm! It's early, but I know many people have weekend plans next week. Let's hope that it is just a rain event, but be on standby in case it is more. Enjoy the warmer air prior to this storm. Have a great weekend! Ryan

For our southern counties, the forecast was spot on. However, the snow nudged a little farther north and Jonesboro and surrounding areas got a little more than what we expected. Sometimes we forecast ... and God laughs. Pinpointing exactly where a blob of moisture will go is not easy. Add in that pinpointing how much snow that blob of moisture will produce is also not easy. What fell this morning is the equivalent of seeing about 0.05-0.10" of rain. Seriously, if we had been 50°, all of this would have been sprinkles. On average, 0.10" of rainfall is 1" of snow. This morning, those ratios are even higher. About 0.05" of rain is equal to 1" of snow. Pinpointing sprinkles is also tough, but sprinkles don't shut down schools and make roads a disaster. BIG snow storms are MUCH easier to forecast than what we had this morning. Thankfully, we were not alone. The National Weather Service also did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory this far north last night. If wr...

This has been a fun weather event to watch unfold and it's not even here yet. The data has been erratic in many cases, but the European model has been nice and steady. That's the image I'm showing above. Here are my bullet points this morning: This is still not a big storm. Some people will only see flurries. Some people along I-40 to Highway 64 might see an inch during the day on Friday. It will be a stretch. This 4KM WRF model is very similar, but leaves many with just flurries: That's about all I have right now. Tune in tonight for any changes. Ryan

This week's chance of wintry weather has already been a challenge and I'm sure it's going to try to throw a few more curve-balls before the weekend. Despite erroneous data out there, this does not look to be a huge storm. Here are my thoughts right now: This will be in two waves. Some light snow is possible for areas around Jonesboro northward on Thursday and another chance of light snow on Friday afternoon and evening. Neither chance should give us much snow. Typically with the first snowflakes of the year, some people may freak out a little. I'm not overly concerned with roads in Region 8. At this time, I think kids will stay in school. With that said, I forecast weather and not superintendents. I've seen them cancel for a dusting in the past. It's going to be COLD. Let's dig into some simple maps. The first wave is fast moving with limited moisture. It may produce a dusting in our northern counties during the day on Thursday: The next wave may give a dust...

Snow lovers still have a chance of seeing some snowflakes on Thursday, but there is not a lot of moisture. One model has no snow and one model has 1" or less:  I still think we will see some light snow. I don't think it is going to be enough to cause major problems. With that said, if we can squeeze out 1.00" of snow in some spots, it might be enough to make some bridges and overpasses slick. If you are looking for a guaranteed ticket to get out of school and work on Friday, you better start doing some better snow dancing because this system is looking very moisture-starved. We will still be COLD though! We will likely not go above freezing for a couple of days. Ryan