Few

It's hot and humid, but we have increasing confidence that the weather will get much better later this week. Here are my thoughts right now: Monday-Wednesday will have scattered storms in the afternoon heating. It's all about the Dewpoint!!! Less humid air and cooler air starts moving in Thursday morning. Dewpoints (which measures the mugginess) go from 70s to 50s!  Tuesday night's Jonesboro vs. Batesville game will still be hot and muggy. Thursday night Junior High Football games will be nice! Football Friday Night and the ASTATE game on Friday evening will be even better! Here are the dewpoints this evening. They will be in the 70s and it will be muggy: As the less humid air starts moving in on Thursday, it will feel much better! Dewpoints will be in the low 60s! The trend continues on Friday as dewpoints fall into the 50s! This will be one of the most comfortable Week 1 football forecasts we have ever had! Let's hope this data does not change!  There is also some act...

There is a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles that needs to be watched. Admittedly, it's almost impossible to know the outcome of it's existence and it does not even have a name, yet. However, the technology is available to at least make us aware of something we need to watch for next week. The European model is already suggesting that this disturbance will be named soon.The above image is several models plotted on one map. We call it a spaghetti plot. I'm sure you can see why... But, notice the general trend to take it into the Gulf of Mexico. The Euro model started showing this setup and now the GFS is on board. I was not overly concerned when I saw this trend (and I'm still not, really), but even here in Region 8, we have to watch the tropics. As we learned with Hurricane Ike, the tropics can greatly impact our harvest season, especially for rice. While we are several days out from this impacting any part of the United States, I do want us to be aware that ...

The models were going back and forth on when the rain will move out this weekend, but we are starting to see a nice consistency in the models! The image above shows the expected rainfall from a few models. Notice the consistency in timing and amounts. Here are my thoughts on the next few days: Showers and storms continue with the best chance, coverage, and intensity on Friday and Saturday. The atmosphere will be more unstable than the past few days on Friday and Saturday, so lightning is likely. Strong storms are possible, too. Models have been flip-flopping, but I'm growing more confident that the rain chances drop Sunday morning. Less Humid air moves in late Sunday and will last through Tuesday. Sunshine on Monday! Now, let's dig a little deeper. The atmosphere right now is pretty stable. We have not had much lightning lately and the rain today is light. A product that we use to see how much "energy" is in the atmosphere to produce storms is CAPE. Here's the CAP...

The above image is from Range, LA. It's a tweet sent to our Raycom News Network station, WAFB. The rainfall in the Baton Rouge area is incredibly bad. Several water rescues are underway right now. WAFB has been on top of this record breaking rainfall. You can watch their coverage at www.wafb.com They have also posted some interesting facts about how historic this rainfall has been: August 26, 1926 popped a few times while I was researching this historic flood. I pulled some old climate logs to see thsoe days from Baton Rouge and Donaldsville, LA: Continue to follow WAFB for more info. This same moisture is impacting Region 8 now. The Ozarks could see 5-8" of rainfall over the next few days. Ryan

Are you needing some rain? If so, the pattern is going to be in your favor over the next week or so. Here are my thoughts on the upcoming weekend and the first week of school: Many outdoor activities in Region 8 will be impacted this weekend. We will need to watch radar closely for the Cave City Watermelon festival. Heaviest rainfall may be in the western and northern parts of Region 8. (More on that below) Many people will see some rain on their first day of school. Models are differing on how much rain, but not differing on the overall outcome. So, let's dig into some data. Euro and GFS models are agreeing on the wetter pattern. They are also agreeing on the placement of the heaviest rainfall. The Euro has higher rainfall amounts:  The GFS has lower rainfall amounts overall, but still A LOT of similarities in the overall outcome. If this pattern plays out like the GFS and Euro are showing, some areas will be DRIER (or less wet) than others. Less wet counties include Mississippi, ...

Let's face it, this is the last week of Summer. I know we officially call September 1st the first day of meteorological fall or September 22nd for astronomical fall, but to kids and parents across Region 8... this is the last week of summer! If you have outdoor plans for the last week before school, listen up. We have a wetter pattern taking shape. There is a low pressure on the Gulf Coast that will be bringing moisture into many vacation spots. That disturbance will move through Mississippi and Louisiana over the next few days and be into Region 8 for the weekend. We are not calling for a complete washout, but rain chances will be high. Here's a look at the Euro model's solution for rainfall over the next 7 days: So here are my thoughts right now: Some places could see 3-5" of rainfall by Monday.  Severe weather is not likely. Flash flooding is possible. The first day of school may have rain and storms. Teachers that work car line... plan accordingly, just in case. Te...