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We are still 6-7 days out, but I've already started hearing a lot of chatter about the CHANCE of wintry weather next week (January 5th-7th). Here are some bullet points to simplify the information: When it comes to winter storms, nothing is definite. Cold air is coming in on Wednesday. Most data is showing that SOMETHING will happen. Timing is questionable. If you look at our 7-Day Forecast, we officially have a "chance" on Thursday and Friday, but that's mainly because we are not positive on the timing. It will not be a two-day event.  Amounts are questionable. As we all know, it does not take much to impact Region 8, so even light amounts need to be taken seriously. Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast. My gut feeling tells me that something will happen. The pattern supports very cold air. The model runs that have showed us being too warm and it being all rain typically have a hard time handling cold air. It's likely for a disturbance will move across Region ...

When I posted this graphic of the Top 5 warmest Christmases, many people pointed out that 1982 not only had a warm Christmas, but had tornadoes on Christmas Eve. Since I was only 4 when this happened, I wanted to research this tornado outbreak a little. I first grabbed the climate log from Terry Wood from that month (above). Terry always did a great job making notes regarding big storms. Sure enough, he mentions the tornadoes on Christmas Eve and even mentions that there was a fatality. I searched a little deeper and found out that this fatality was from a long track tornado in Sharp, Randolph, Oregon, Ripley, and Carter counties: Here's the summary of this tornado from Thomas Grazulis: Moved Northeast from about 5 miles Northeast of Hardy, Arkansas, destroying three homes in Arkansas (near -F4) where the funnel was almost a mile wide. Crossing into Missouri, 3 miles West Southwest of Myrtle, the damage extended to 1.5 miles West of Riverton, passing 5 miles North of Bardley, and e...

Out of 122 years of data, this Christmas should be in the Top 10 warmest. Here's a list of the 10 warmest Christmas days in Jonesboro. Notice, last year was warm, too: Our best chance for rain on Christmas should come late in the day or at night as we go into Monday. Therefore, the kids may be able to play outside with their new stuff! That's all I have for today because like many of you... I'm sick. Cough, sneezing, runny nose... Yay! Have a good day! Ryan

I was born and raised in Nashville, TN. We all had season passes to Opryland and I probably rode their roller coasters 30 times a day in the summer. One of the roller coasters was an indoor one called "Chaos". It had a recording that played over and over again while you waited in line, so obviously, I still remember what it said today. Anyone that grew up in Nashville during this era probably remembers, "Please move quickly through the station, your time is running out" ... well, here in Region 8, our time is running out. The roller coaster starts tonight! As I type this blog on Friday morning, we are still cold. Most of us are still below freezing: Here are some bullet points on what will happen over the next 48 hours: Tonight, the warm front comes through. We will be in the 40s this evening, but when the sun comes up in the morning, we will be in the mid 60s! Tonight, spotty light showers Tonight, very breezy. South winds 15-25 mph. Tomorrow morning, very warm for...

It's December, so our schedules at work are not normal. I worked over the weekend, but I've been off for the past 2 days. I'm back in the studio tomorrow, but I had to look at some data because of all of the chatter about Saturday. As I glance at just the temperatures, I can see that we are likely going from the 20s.... to the 60s... and back to the 20s in less than 48 hours: In addition to a huge swing in temperatures, we have some precipitation that will be moving through. So... the forecast gets even more tricky. Here are my thoughts as of right now and these thoughts may change between now and Saturday: Strong storms are going to be possible, especially from I-40 southward.  Sharp temperature gradient will exist across Region 8 Saturday afternoon. Coldest air of the season plunges in for Sunday. Some wintry weather is possible late Saturday. Any wintry weather would likely be sleet... with some snow late. Any wintry accumulation would likely be LIGHT. Timing of wintry p...

The quick answer is "maybe". But, let's not panic just yet. Tomorrow night, very cold air will be moving into Region 8. At the same time, a fast moving upper-level disturbance will be passing north of the area. Cold air holds less moisture, so as that disturbance passes through, the atmosphere is going to squeeze out as much moisture as possible. The model below is one of the more aggressive models with the flurries/snow showers. This is what it shows at midnight tomorrow night: While a few flakes of snow may be flying, I'm not sold on it adding up to anything. The ground is still pretty warm and the air temperature is likely to still be above freezing when this moves through. I'm still more concerned about the cold air on Thursday and Friday! It's going to be frigid. Could we have a little dusting on the windshields and outdoor grills? It's possible. The seems to happen at the start of a season. It's just enough to send some people into a tizzy, but i...

We have several things we are watching in the weather this week. We have some more rain coming on Monday afternoon and night. We may have a little rain and maybe some flurries in the middle of the week. But I think the weather that will impact us the most is the COLD AIR! The coldest air of the season moves in on Thursday. That will leave us with a very cold morning on Friday. The above image is one computer model's wind chill values on Friday morning. Some parts of Region 8 may have SINGLE-DIGIT wind chills on Friday morning! The actual air temperature will be in the low 20s! This is the time to think about taking a few precautions. Cover the outside faucets, if needed. Make plans to bring the pets inside. Consider the bus stop conditions on Thursday and especially, Friday morning. We will continue to watch it and will continue to update our weather app! Ryan

Many people are running in the St. Jude race this weekend and all eyes are on the weather. I know some of you that are running will pack a few extra things if there is a chance of rain. The data has been going back and forth on the start time of the rainfall, but I'm confident enough that there will at least be some showers... so I wanted to give everyone a head's up. At this time, it looks like there will be some LIGHT showers in the area near the start of the race. The heavier showers will likely stay south of the city: In addition to some light showers, it's going to be a little chilly. We've started this race in the past in the teens, so low to mid 40s will not be that bad. HOWEVER, if there are some light showers, it will feel colder to wet skin: Don't panic too much about the rain. At least it's not thunderstorms! Have a great race, enjoy your time on the course, and remember that you are helping kids! Have a great weekend, Ryan