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We have a tricky forecast over the next 48 hours. We could see 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round is what we call "conditional". We know that the air is going to become very unstable and the dynamics that support severe weather will exist Tuesday afternoon. The big question is if storms will develop in this environment, ahead of the cold front that will come through early on Wednesday morning. You may have heard us mention a "cap" before. This "cap" is some warmer air aloft that prevents the air below it from rising. Essentially, it snuffs out storm development until the air below it warms enough to overcome "break" the cap. If we get really warm tomorrow afternoon, it will be easier to overcome that cap. That's why we always say that seeing sunshine in this type of environment is not a good thing. Here are my bullet points, as of Monday morning: Spotty showers and storms are possible Tuesday morning. We are not worried about these s...

As we start to question if Winter is done, many are asking if we ever had a Winter. I say "kind of...". Let me break down some facts that might surprise you: We had 13 days with freezing temperatures in December. We had 7 days in the 20s in December. We had 3 days in the teens! We woke up on on December 19th at 13°! We had a trace of snow on December 17th. Side note... We went from 76° to 19° from the 17th to the 18th! We officially had 2" of snowfall on January 6th in Jonesboro. I only had 0.50" and other parts of Region 8 had flurries. Still... officially there was 2". We had 8 days with freezing temperatures in January.  Morning lows for January 6th-9th were: 17,11,10,18 respectively.  Even this month (February), we have had 6 mornings of freezing temperatures.  On February 4th, we started the day at 23°. So, I say we "kind of" had a Winter. It's been a Winter with some BIG swings in temperatures, but we expected that. February is going to go d...

As of today, this is the 8th warmest February on record in Jonesboro. The average temperature is running 7.8° above average. That's the warmest February in 27 years! Here's the Top 10 warmest average February temperatures on record: As always, I like to look back at the record breaking years, so let's look at 1930 in Jonesboro. I highlighted some interesting things: All of the dates that had 60s and 70s, I highlighted. They had most of their warm air in the second half of the month. We had some 70s earlier this month and 70s in the forecast. I feel we are going to break into the Top 5 before this month is over. Another thing to note about 1930 is the number of frosts. They had 8 mornings with frost. I don't have an exact number for 2017, but I think we have only had 3-4 so far. Something that has lowered our average in 2017 is the overnight lows. You may have forgotten, but we woke up on February 4th with a temperature of 23°. We will continue to watch the rest of the m...

We are warm and unstable over the next few days. Despite that, the severe storm risk is "conditional". It's one of those setups that "if" something develops, it could be severe. Not everyone will see rain and storms. Here are my bullet points this morning: The best chance to see severe weather will be tonight and through noon tomorrow. (12AM-12PM) Gusty winds and hail are possible. Tornadoes are possible. Make sure you have a way to get warnings while you are sleeping. Some storms could develop before the alarm clock goes off.  Let's dig into some maps. The air starts getting unstable tonight. This map shows CAPE or the energy needed for storms: Models do show some storms developing tonight. A few factors come into play, but I do expect storms between midnight and daybreak somewhere in Region 8. Probably in our western areas. Prior to midnight, I'll be looking somewhere between Little Rock and Mountain Home for storms that could impact Region 8. This map...