Wet Pattern Setting Up


Are you needing some rain? If so, the pattern is going to be in your favor over the next week or so. Here are my thoughts on the upcoming weekend and the first week of school:

  • Many outdoor activities in Region 8 will be impacted this weekend.
  • We will need to watch radar closely for the Cave City Watermelon festival.
  • Heaviest rainfall may be in the western and northern parts of Region 8. (More on that below)
  • Many people will see some rain on their first day of school.
  • Models are differing on how much rain, but not differing on the overall outcome.
So, let's dig into some data. Euro and GFS models are agreeing on the wetter pattern. They are also agreeing on the placement of the heaviest rainfall. The Euro has higher rainfall amounts:
 The GFS has lower rainfall amounts overall, but still A LOT of similarities in the overall outcome. If this pattern plays out like the GFS and Euro are showing, some areas will be DRIER (or less wet) than others. Less wet counties include Mississippi, Poinsett, Cross, and Crittenden counties. Everywhere else seem to be wetter. Here's the GFS:
Here's the deal... A lot of you have been asking me about outdoor plans this weekend. It's going to rain. I don't think it will rain ALL day, but in the locations above that are showing higher rainfall amounts, the likelihood of being impacted by rain is greater. This includes Lake Norfork and the Spring River. 

Take care and have a great end to the week! -Ryan

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Fake Tornado Reports Are Not Funny

Image
For anyone that knows me, they know that I have pulled some pranks. My friends know that I will do anything to make them laugh or smile. The guy who posted this picture to Facebook last night was probably trying to do the same thing. I get it. But, posting fake tornado reports is not funny. It's dangerous. It creates false panic. And, it wastes time for those trying to warn people in the line of storms. The pic above was NOT from Region 8 yesterday. It is a picture from Marshall Brozek in Moore, OK in 2013. Let me explain more about the picture above: Its' a picture of a tornado that killed 25 people in Moore, Oklahoma on May 20th, 2013: NWS-Norman It's the picture of a tornado that killed kids, pregnant mothers, dads, sons, and daughters. Here are their names, ages, and links to their lives: Terri Long – 49 Megan Futrell – 29 Case Futrell – 4 months Shannon Quick – 40 Sydnee Vargyas – 7 months Karrina Vargyas – 4 Jeany Neely – 38 Antonia Candelaria – 9 Kyle Davis – 8 Janae...
Read more

Our Hazy Sky Comes From Africa

Image
Many of you have probably noticed the HAZE over the past day or two. You may have also noticed that it's not like our normal summer haze. It has a little bit of a "dusty" look to it... Well, that's because it is from the Saharan Desert! As you can see in this animation, the general wind flow is from East to West in the lower latitudes. If the wind patterns are just right... that dust is scooped northward into Region 8: The above animation is a forecast over the next few days. Notice that while the dust is still moving across the Atlantic, it will lesson over Region 8. Yesterday was probably the worst day: One good thing about having Saharan Desert Dust over the Atlantic is that it helps suppress hurricane development. Have a great day! Ryan
Read more

Severe Weather Possible: Memorial Day Weekend

Image
First off, I think we are going to salvage a lot of the weekend. If you have outdoor plans, you will want to watch the TIMING of the storms, but don't cancel your plans. Here are the bullet points as of today (5/24/17): A few spotty storms are possible on Friday evening, but we are not too worried about these storms and anything that develops should not last long. On Saturday, most of the day will be dry. The greatest threat is Saturday EVENING. Greatest threat: STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. Hail is possible Tornado threat is LOW. A lot of Sunday AFTERNOON may be dry.  Memorial Day looks dry. So, let's dig into some specifics. Remember, we are still FOUR days out and this forecast may change a little. As of now, here's where I think the greatest risk will be on Saturday and Saturday night: For us in Region 8, we may see several hours of dry weather on Saturday. The latest data shows that most of the rain between 1PM and 7PM will be north and west of us: Later Saturday evening and Sa...
Read more